FOMC Preview: First tapering hint likely in September – Goldman Sachs

Ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision, analysts at Goldman Sachs note that any hint on the Fed’s tapering is likely to be thrown not until the September monetary policy meeting.

Key quotes

“Fed officials have said that they intend to signal that tapering is coming "well in advance" a phrase they also used in reference to the start of balance sheet runoff in 2017.”

“That precedent suggests that "well in advance" means two meetings worth of hints before the formal announcement, consistent with our expectation of the first hint in September, a second hint in November, and a formal announcement of tapering in December.”