When are US monthly retail sales figures and how could they affect EUR/USD?

US monthly retail sales overview

Tuesday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures for February, scheduled later during the early North American session at 12:30 GMT. The one-time boost from the latest round of $600 stimulus payment is expected to have faded, which, along with bad weather, might have held back spending during the second month of 2021.

The headline sales are anticipated to have declined by 0.5% in February. Sales excluding autos are projected to fall a modest 0.1% during the reported month. Meanwhile, the closely watched Retail Sales Control Group are anticipated to drop by 0.9% in February as compared to a solid 6% growth recorded in the previous month.

How could it affect EUR/USD?

Ahead of the key release, a modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields kept the US dollar bulls on the defensive and assisted the EUR/USD pair to gain some positive traction. A surprisingly positive reading will add to the narrative of a relatively faster US economic recovery and provide a goodish lift to the greenback.

Conversely, a weaker-than-expected print is more likely to be overshadowed by market participants amid expectations for a pickup in consumer spending, bolstered by the third round of coronavirus stimulus checks. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the downside and further positive move might still be seen as a selling opportunity.

Key Notes

  •  US Retail Sales February Preview: Will the real consumer please stand up?

  •  EUR/USD Forecast: Easing within range, eyes on US Retail Sales

  •  EUR/USD clings to modest intraday gains, upside seems limited

About US retail sales

The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).