UK: BoE and Retail Sales in focus – TDS

According to analysts at TD Securities, today's a busy day for the UK , with a rate decision from the BoE, the new government's Queen's Speech, and for data we have November retail sales.

Key Quotes

“For sales, with the Black Friday weekend having occurred so late in the month, those sales may not have been caught by the retail sales report. So we're below consensus in looking for a -0.5% m/m decline (mkt +0.2%). We look for sales losses to come from clothing/footwear and household goods.”

“For the Bank of England decision, we look for the BoE to keep its policy stance unchanged with another 7-2 vote. The macro data has deteriorated further, but there's a firm hope that as political uncertainty lifts, UK growth will pick up. The recent US-China deal also reduces the downside tail. However, we still see about a 1/3 chance that Vlieghe joins Haldane and Haskel in voting for a rate cut, making it a narrower 6-3 decision.”