UK: Earlier departure possible - Rabobank

Rabobank analysts note that the Article 50 was extended for a second time during a special EU summit on 10 April with 31 October being the new cut-off date, the date by which the UK must have approved the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and have translated it to domestic law

Key Quotes

“An earlier departure is possible as soon as the UK ratifies a withdrawal deal with the EU.”

“The UK has committed to holding European Parliament (EP) elections. However, PM May is pushing for approving the WA before this day so that the UK does not have to follow through on this commitment.”

“The 6-month extension pushes a hard Brexit further away. The risk is that the urgency to find a Brexit consensus in the British Parliament will be reduced.”

“Failure to break the deadlock could lead to a political crisis and an early general elections.”

“An early general election could pave the way to a referendum; a further extension beyond 31 October would be needed to accommodate it.”

“An orderly Brexit remains our base case and current talks with Labour bode well in that sense. However, given the gridlock on Brexit in British politics the odds of a Hard Brexit remain high.”