When are the UK retail sales and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK retail sales Overview

The UK retail sales, scheduled to be published later this session at 0930 GMT, are expected to rebound 0.2% m/m in January, following a sharp drop of 0.9% seen in December. Total retail sales are seen arriving at 3.4% over the year in the reported month, up from 3.0% booked previously.

Meanwhile, core retail sales, stripping the basket off motor fuel sales, are seen bouncing 0.2% m/m while rising 3.0% y/y.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, can fuel movements of up to 100 pips.

How could it affect GBP/USD?

FXStreet’s Analyst Haresh Menghani notes: “… from a technical perspective, Wednesday's false breakout and a subsequent weakness reinforce the near-term bearish outlook. Hence, the downward trajectory is likely to get extended further towards testing support marked by over two-week old descending trend-channel, around the 1.2700 neighborhood. On the flip side, any recovery attempt now seems to confront some fresh supply near the 1.2840-45 region and is followed by the trend-channel resistance near the 1.2870-80 region.”

Key Notes

Forex Today: Softer risk amid poor China prices, trade talks; eyes on UK retail sales

Market themes of the Day: The UK retail sales and trade talks in focus

UK: Retail sales likely to decline 0.2% in January - TDS

About the UK retail sales

The retail sales released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.