When are the UK data releases and how could they affect GBP/USD?

The UK Economic Data Overview

The UK industrial production and trade balance data for the month of February are scheduled for release at 0830 GMT in the European session ahead.

The manufacturing production, which makes up around 80% of total industrial production, is expected to increase 0.2% on monthly basis in Feb, against a 0.1% expansion seen in Jan. Meanwhile, the total industrial production is expected to arrive at 0.4% m/m in Feb, as compared to a 1.3% reading booked previously.

On an annualized basis, the industrial production for Feb is expected to rise sharply to 2.9% versus 1.6% previous, while the manufacturing output figures are likely to accelerate to 3.3% in the reported month versus 2.7% last.

Separately, the UK goods trade balance will be reported at the same time and is expected to come in at GBP -11.95 billion in Feb vs. GBP -12.33 billion last.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 20 and 35 pips in deviations up to 1.5 to -2.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

The UK releases are likely to be closely eyed by the GBP markets, especially after last week’s trio of disappointing PMI reports and amid looming US-China trade conflict.

Upbeat data across all indicators could provide extra legs to the pound’s upside, which could drive the rate closer towards the 1.4250 barrier, beyond which the doors open up for a test of the 1.43 handle. However, GBP/USD could drop back to test the 1.4170 support area should the data disappoint the markets

Key Notes

UK: Focus on trade, IP, and construction output data - TDS

UK: Key risk events ahead - Nomura

European FX Outlook: UK manufacturing draws the attention

About the UK manufacturing production and trade balance

The Manufacturing Production released by the Office for National Statistics(ONS) measures the manufacturing output. Manufacturing Production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of UK manufacturing activity that dominates a large part of total GDP. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

The trade balance released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a balance between exports and imports of goods. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the GBP.