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12 Mar 2014
Flash: AUD/USD, further short squeeze may develop - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - A base may have formed in AUD/USD, suggesting that a further squeeze of short is a real possibility, notes Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ.
Key Quotes
"The turn in weekly momentum and solid rebounds off 0.8675 suggest that a base has formed and that a broad consolidation should continue to develop into Q2 2014."
"The style and extent of initial rebounds are consistent with corrections of the slide from 0.9760, rather than the whole sell-off from 2011’s 1.1080 high."
"Even if near-term slippage were to break back below 0.9000, the 0.8820-90 area should provide sufficient support to confirm the base and allow for another squeeze to develop."
"The pullback from 0.9080 (38.2% of the slide from 0.9760) proved to be very corrective, with overlapping price action which held above 0.8870 (interim 50%)."
"A secondary squeeze to 0.9210-15 (50% of the slide from 0.9760) could occur quickly if near-term support at 0.8980 holds (ideally 0.9015), though a larger squeeze to test 0.9335 seems unlikely at present."
"Failure to hold 0.8980 would reduce the chances of an early squeeze, but would probably only postpone the secondary squeeze whilst of broader interim consolidation develops. Stops are still likely below 0.8800."
Key Quotes
"The turn in weekly momentum and solid rebounds off 0.8675 suggest that a base has formed and that a broad consolidation should continue to develop into Q2 2014."
"The style and extent of initial rebounds are consistent with corrections of the slide from 0.9760, rather than the whole sell-off from 2011’s 1.1080 high."
"Even if near-term slippage were to break back below 0.9000, the 0.8820-90 area should provide sufficient support to confirm the base and allow for another squeeze to develop."
"The pullback from 0.9080 (38.2% of the slide from 0.9760) proved to be very corrective, with overlapping price action which held above 0.8870 (interim 50%)."
"A secondary squeeze to 0.9210-15 (50% of the slide from 0.9760) could occur quickly if near-term support at 0.8980 holds (ideally 0.9015), though a larger squeeze to test 0.9335 seems unlikely at present."
"Failure to hold 0.8980 would reduce the chances of an early squeeze, but would probably only postpone the secondary squeeze whilst of broader interim consolidation develops. Stops are still likely below 0.8800."