France: Dead end for Fillon, the 'third man'? - ING

In France, the Republican Party candidate, François Fillon, held a press conference this Wednesday to announce he's been summoned by recently appointed judges on his current corruption case as noted by the Julien Manceaux, Senior Economist at ING.

Key Quotes

“He will remain the Republican candidate. However, his declaration may not be enough to help him come back in the polls.”

“In France, the main political party, Les Republicains, saw its presidential election candidate, Francois Fillon, under heightened judiciary investigation this morning. M Fillon cancelled a campaign visit at the national farm fair, an important public appearance event for politicians of all stripes, not only in times of Presidential elections. Reports this morning suggested that this was because M Fillon could soon be charged by the Financial Prosecutor.”

“Fillon has been under media and judicial scrutiny for an alleged abuse of public funds in favour of his family. It appears that he hired his wife and children as MP’s assistants. If it is still unclear that he broke any rule, the fact that his wife has repeatedly denied having worked for him in the past and the amount paid have shocked public opinion. It now appears that the wages paid at the time were three times the average MP assistant’s pay, for work that still has to be proven.”

“Until now, it seemed that Fillon wanted to wait for judicial clearance, but the Financial Prosecutor does not seem to be heading that way, even if neither Mr Fillon nor his wife have yet to be questioned by a judge (they only gave answers to investigators). He confirmed during a press conference today that the judges had just summoned him to be questioned on 15 March. Mr Fillon described this agenda as highly political (as the 17th of March is the deadline to propose a Presidential candidate). He also said he would attend, and that he will stand as Presidential candidate, not only to defend himself but to defend the ability of the people to express its “sovereign will”.”

“Today’s declaration is however unlikely to be sufficient in the eyes of public opinion. Mr Fillon is now the third man: recent polls show that he lost his second position (after Mrs Le Pen) to Emmanuel Macron while Benoît Hamon, the freshly elected left-wing candidate is coming closer to third position. A lot can still happen before next month of course, as Mrs Le Pen should soon see her parliamentary immunity suspended by the European Parliament, which could open the doors to possible prosecutions in France.”

“The French election campaign continues to be full of surprises. At this moment the second round will most probably see a duel between Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. According to the polls, the latter is favoured to win that contest, though voter turnout could be a determining factor in the current race.”