US: Q4 GDP consensus is for 2.2% annualised q-o-q increase - Rabobank

Research Team at Rabobank suggests that today we will get to see Q4 US GDP and the consensus is a 2.2% annualised q-o-q increase, down from 3.5% in Q3, and – crucially – with the core PCE price deflator rising just 1.3%, down from 1.7%, and so further away from the Fed’s 2% comfort level.

Key Quotes

“Following that we have US durable goods orders, also layered with meaning, where the headline is expected to rise 2.5% following a -4.5% slump last month, and even the core measure of goods shipped is seen rising a healthy 0.5% vs. 0.2% in November. No doubt those releases will determine how Great USD, bond yields, and equities are at the end of this week.”