Australia: Retail sales stumble - ANZ

Jo Masters, Senior Economist at ANZ, notes that Australian retail sales stumbled in November, rising just 0.2% m/m, the weakest result since July.

Key Quotes

“Sales were particularly weak in the mining states, with sales in NSW and Victoria remaining robust. A strong housing market continues to provide a support to spending, while clothing sales bounced back after a weak run. We continue to expect consumer spending in Q4 to have accelerated from the previous quarters’ lacklustre pace, particularly given fairly upbeat anecdotes around the Christmas period.”

“Retail sales disappointed in November, rising by 0.2% m/m, following average monthly rises of 0.6% over the previous three months. In annual terms, sales were up 3.3% y/y. In trend terms, retail sales have risen by 0.4% m/m for four consecutive months.”

“Retail sales were quite strong in NSW and Victoria, rising by 0.5% m/m and 0.4% m/m respectively, with year-ended growth of 4.3% and 3.5% respectively. In NSW, sales of hardware, building and garden supplies jumped 4% m/m in line with still strong house price growth. However, this was offset by a decline in sales in WA and SA and a meagre 0.1% m/m rise in Queensland.”

“The weakness was concentrated in small store sales, which fell by 0.3% m/m, which tend to be more volatile. In contrast, large store sales rose by 0.4% m/m in November.”

“Food sales rose 0.4% m/m, while clothing sales bounced 1.7% m/m and household goods sales were up 0.2% m/m. Café and restaurant sales fell by 0.8% and department stores sales were down 0.3% m/m.”