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28 Mar 2016
USD/JPY bulls in control ahead of key week
The greenback gained more ground late last week ahead of another key, but slightly busier calendar for the week ahead. USD/JPY has recovered from 110.66 lows scored on 17th March and having made a fresh high at 113.37 with a combination of both GDP positive data in the US and less positive data in Japan's CPI's reported last week.
FX G10 key events: a rich data week - Nomura
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/jpy-usd-forecast/
For the US, despite a disappointing run in durable goods earlier in the week, there was an upward revision of the US GDP figures for Q4 2015, propelling the greenback forward across the board and underpinning USD/JPY's upside.
USD/JPY: a fade within a bearish bias - Deutsche
However, analysts at Deutsche Bank explained that ticks higher are a sell rather than buying tick slower within the familiar ranges, as the Yen trades with a bullish bias.
For the week ahead, in the US, PCE arrives first ahead of the US the ISM manufacturing index. Eyes will be focused on whether it can break out of contractionary territory in March. Then, the showdown comes in nonfarm payrolls. Analysts at TD Securities explained that these should slow significantly due to a historical seasonal underperformance in the month of March (employment growth has averaged 150k in last 5 years). "The unemployment rate should rise modestly on account of the weak employment growth."
USD/JPY levels
USD/JPY's reversal of the 16th March downside penetrated the 4hr 200 sma at 112.99 for a break and closes on the 133 handle. However, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that in the 4 hours chart, the price is above its 100 and 200 SMAs, while the technical indicators hold within positive territory, lacking directional strength amid the latest absence of volatility. 113.80 is next upside target while the 50 sma on the 4hr at 112.26 may continue to offer key downside support.
FX G10 key events: a rich data week - Nomura
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/jpy-usd-forecast/
For the US, despite a disappointing run in durable goods earlier in the week, there was an upward revision of the US GDP figures for Q4 2015, propelling the greenback forward across the board and underpinning USD/JPY's upside.
USD/JPY: a fade within a bearish bias - Deutsche
However, analysts at Deutsche Bank explained that ticks higher are a sell rather than buying tick slower within the familiar ranges, as the Yen trades with a bullish bias.
For the week ahead, in the US, PCE arrives first ahead of the US the ISM manufacturing index. Eyes will be focused on whether it can break out of contractionary territory in March. Then, the showdown comes in nonfarm payrolls. Analysts at TD Securities explained that these should slow significantly due to a historical seasonal underperformance in the month of March (employment growth has averaged 150k in last 5 years). "The unemployment rate should rise modestly on account of the weak employment growth."
USD/JPY levels
USD/JPY's reversal of the 16th March downside penetrated the 4hr 200 sma at 112.99 for a break and closes on the 133 handle. However, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that in the 4 hours chart, the price is above its 100 and 200 SMAs, while the technical indicators hold within positive territory, lacking directional strength amid the latest absence of volatility. 113.80 is next upside target while the 50 sma on the 4hr at 112.26 may continue to offer key downside support.