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9 Dec 2015
Fed Call: First rate hike in December – RBS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at RBS, suggests that the November employment release paved the way for Fed action in December.
Key Quotes
“Nonfarm payrolls rose by 211,000 (with net upward revisions over the prior two months of 35,000, as October's already outsized job gain was revised up from 271,000 to 298,000). The average payroll gain since June has been 206,000. As Yellen said in her testimony last week, this is "close to the monthly pace of around 210,000 in the first half of the year and still sufficient to be consistent with continued improvement in the labor market" -- the criteria for tightening in December.”
“Thus, we expect the Fed to hike rates next week – the only risk being an unexpected tightening in financial conditions (e.g. in reaction to some geopolitical event). Looking beyond the first move, Fed officials have repeatedly stressed that the path of rate hikes will likely be gradual. In 2016, we look for the funds rate to be raised once per quarter, with the target range ending the year at 1.25%-1.50%.”
Key Quotes
“Nonfarm payrolls rose by 211,000 (with net upward revisions over the prior two months of 35,000, as October's already outsized job gain was revised up from 271,000 to 298,000). The average payroll gain since June has been 206,000. As Yellen said in her testimony last week, this is "close to the monthly pace of around 210,000 in the first half of the year and still sufficient to be consistent with continued improvement in the labor market" -- the criteria for tightening in December.”
“Thus, we expect the Fed to hike rates next week – the only risk being an unexpected tightening in financial conditions (e.g. in reaction to some geopolitical event). Looking beyond the first move, Fed officials have repeatedly stressed that the path of rate hikes will likely be gradual. In 2016, we look for the funds rate to be raised once per quarter, with the target range ending the year at 1.25%-1.50%.”