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22 Oct 2013
European open: Markets trading like a Non-Farm Friday
FXstreet.com (London) - With a re-scheduled set for today, Non-Farm Payroll Tuesday is trading much like a Non-Farm Payroll Friday.
EUR/USD traded flat over the Asian session, recovering any dips in USD to end the Asian session where it started at USD1.3671.
USD/JPY showed more conviction, with some creeping dollar strength to JPY98.2850, though adding only 0.12 percent.
Yesterday’s stock indices topped out at their record highs, mostly flatlining on the day. The S&P and the dow traded flat, while the Nikkei added 0.13 percent overnight.
All eyes are on today’s NFP numbers with some mooting a possible December taper. But even if numbers surprise hugely to the upside, the chances of this are extremely slim.
After a September tapering of the Fed’s monthly USD85bn asset purchase programme was nixed due to a fragile US recovery, there were some rumours of a possible small October taper. Thanks to the government shutdown this was also ruled out. But even though it would go against the grain of all Fed activity, there are still some who view any beating of the consensus as a sign of a potential December taper.
Should we see a number in excess of the 180 consensus, the dollar should see some short-term rally on the prospect of relative tightening, with some of the more exposed EM currencies such as IDR and MYR taking a big knock.
Anything at or below consensus should just confirm market expectations that any tapering will be pushed into the first quarter of 2014.
In the UK, we have UK public sector borrowing data released, with net borrowing set to be at GBP10bn.
The rest of the day is mostly second-tier data unlikely to have much market impact, with US construction spending, the Richmond Fed survey and the the Chicago Fed NAI.
EUR/USD traded flat over the Asian session, recovering any dips in USD to end the Asian session where it started at USD1.3671.
USD/JPY showed more conviction, with some creeping dollar strength to JPY98.2850, though adding only 0.12 percent.
Yesterday’s stock indices topped out at their record highs, mostly flatlining on the day. The S&P and the dow traded flat, while the Nikkei added 0.13 percent overnight.
All eyes are on today’s NFP numbers with some mooting a possible December taper. But even if numbers surprise hugely to the upside, the chances of this are extremely slim.
After a September tapering of the Fed’s monthly USD85bn asset purchase programme was nixed due to a fragile US recovery, there were some rumours of a possible small October taper. Thanks to the government shutdown this was also ruled out. But even though it would go against the grain of all Fed activity, there are still some who view any beating of the consensus as a sign of a potential December taper.
Should we see a number in excess of the 180 consensus, the dollar should see some short-term rally on the prospect of relative tightening, with some of the more exposed EM currencies such as IDR and MYR taking a big knock.
Anything at or below consensus should just confirm market expectations that any tapering will be pushed into the first quarter of 2014.
In the UK, we have UK public sector borrowing data released, with net borrowing set to be at GBP10bn.
The rest of the day is mostly second-tier data unlikely to have much market impact, with US construction spending, the Richmond Fed survey and the the Chicago Fed NAI.