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16 Sep 2015
US CPI: Data in line with the expectations - ING
FXStreet (Delhi) – Rob Carnell, Research Analyst at ING, notes that the US August CPI was the last significant piece of data standing between the FOMC and its rate decision on Thursday, and it came in almost bang on expectations.
Key Quotes
“The only marginal deviation form expectations being the core inflation rate, which was unchanged at 1.8%YoY - though from an expected 0.1% mom gain, so almost certainly just a rounding effect. Headline inflation was unchanged at 0.2%YoY, dragged down by a 2.0%mom decline in energy prices – not surprisingly.”
“This result doesn’t even give a directional boost to the hawks, which might have been the case if energy had dragged just a little less. That said, this was never likely to be a decisive piece of data, and the FOMC members will probably go into this meeting already with a good idea of what they want to do.”
“Recent data will have played a minor role in that conclusion. Our base case remains no hike with a strong hint for October, but a small (<25bp hike) still looks like a strong call to us.”
Key Quotes
“The only marginal deviation form expectations being the core inflation rate, which was unchanged at 1.8%YoY - though from an expected 0.1% mom gain, so almost certainly just a rounding effect. Headline inflation was unchanged at 0.2%YoY, dragged down by a 2.0%mom decline in energy prices – not surprisingly.”
“This result doesn’t even give a directional boost to the hawks, which might have been the case if energy had dragged just a little less. That said, this was never likely to be a decisive piece of data, and the FOMC members will probably go into this meeting already with a good idea of what they want to do.”
“Recent data will have played a minor role in that conclusion. Our base case remains no hike with a strong hint for October, but a small (<25bp hike) still looks like a strong call to us.”