Back
18 May 2015
Waning conviction on the USD bull trend - TDS
FXStreet (Bali) - The FX Research Team at TD Securities, notes of further evidence of the market’s waning conviction on the persistence of the USD bull trend, based on the latest CFTC commitments of traders report.
Key Quotes
"Evidence of the market’s waning conviction on the persistence of the USD bull trend is evident in the CFTC data for the week through May 12th. Positioning data reflected a further reduction in the IMM spec market’s overall bullish bet on the USD, with aggregate, implied USD position accumulated across the major currencies slipping to USD29.9bn this week, the smallest total long punt on the USD effectively since August last year."
"Net EUR shorts were trimmed 11k contracts this week to –179k in total, the smallest bear position net in the EUR since early March. Net short JPY positions fell 7.5k contracts in total to –23.5k in the latest week; net short JPY positions have increased a little in the past two weeks from the level seen prevailing at the end of April but positioning in the JPY overall remains extremely overall—a reflection perhaps of the limited movement (and sliding vol) seen in spot. Net CHF longs doubled this week, rising 5k contracts to +10k."
"One surprise in the data is the fact that speculative and CTA accounts opted to—correctly—fade the GBP’s post election rally. Net GBP shorts rose 6k contracts in the week through Tuesday, just days after the Tories’ surprising election victory."
"Commodity currency positioning was mixed; investors boosted net AUD longs modestly (and from relatively flat levels), taking the market’s net long AUD position to +4.4k, from just +626 contracts in the prior week. Net NZD longs were cut quite sharply in the week, however, falling to +1.7k in the week (from +9k prior). The CAD saw decent net short-covering over the week, with the net market position falling from –10k contracts to –3.9k this week, the smallest bear bet on the CAD since October."
"Net MXN shorts were slashed 23k contracts this week to –27k."
Key Quotes
"Evidence of the market’s waning conviction on the persistence of the USD bull trend is evident in the CFTC data for the week through May 12th. Positioning data reflected a further reduction in the IMM spec market’s overall bullish bet on the USD, with aggregate, implied USD position accumulated across the major currencies slipping to USD29.9bn this week, the smallest total long punt on the USD effectively since August last year."
"Net EUR shorts were trimmed 11k contracts this week to –179k in total, the smallest bear position net in the EUR since early March. Net short JPY positions fell 7.5k contracts in total to –23.5k in the latest week; net short JPY positions have increased a little in the past two weeks from the level seen prevailing at the end of April but positioning in the JPY overall remains extremely overall—a reflection perhaps of the limited movement (and sliding vol) seen in spot. Net CHF longs doubled this week, rising 5k contracts to +10k."
"One surprise in the data is the fact that speculative and CTA accounts opted to—correctly—fade the GBP’s post election rally. Net GBP shorts rose 6k contracts in the week through Tuesday, just days after the Tories’ surprising election victory."
"Commodity currency positioning was mixed; investors boosted net AUD longs modestly (and from relatively flat levels), taking the market’s net long AUD position to +4.4k, from just +626 contracts in the prior week. Net NZD longs were cut quite sharply in the week, however, falling to +1.7k in the week (from +9k prior). The CAD saw decent net short-covering over the week, with the net market position falling from –10k contracts to –3.9k this week, the smallest bear bet on the CAD since October."
"Net MXN shorts were slashed 23k contracts this week to –27k."