USD/INR: RBI will likely be content to see continued stability – Commerzbank

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.50% for the third consecutive meeting. Economists at Commerzbank analyze Indian Rupee (INR) outlook.

Few reasons for RBI to detour from the wait-and-see approach for now

For the current fiscal year 2023-2024, RBI projects 6.5% growth and inflation at 5.4%. There are few reasons for RBI to detour from the wait-and-see approach for now. We expect them to leave rates unchanged for the rest of the year. 

For the currency, RBI will likely be content to see continued stability in USD/INR. In the past week or so, it has drifted up to the upper end of the 81-83 range which has prevailed since the start of the year. One key risk factor near term will be a rebound in inflation due to higher food prices. Longer out, RBI will have to keep an eye on the risks from rising input costs.